Category Archives: IATA

Airlines and airports issue stark warning to European Prime Ministers on inconsistent approach to travel restrictions

IATA issued this statement:

Europe’s airline and airport associations have written to Prime Ministers, Transport, Health and Home Affairs Ministers across the European Union, Schengen and the UK, setting out deep concerns over their failure to implement coherent and science-based approaches to travel restrictions.

The letter, sent jointly from Airports Council International Europe (ACI EUROPE), Airlines for Europe (A4E) and the International Air Transport Association (IATA), is highly critical of the introduction of new restrictions relating to selected countries. Many of these restrictions, state the organisations, are inconsistent with the principles laid out by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).

The aviation sector has been dealt a crippling economic blow by the pandemic. Despite repeated calls for a science-based, harmonised and coordinated approach to new restrictions – differing national approaches have emerged. Some of these unilateral national measures are contrary to expert guidance and further damage consumer confidence. Moreover, the imposition of such restrictions fails to take into account other options governments have to protect their citizens, such as effective track-and-trace systems.

“The European Aviation sector is urging EU/Schengen States and the UK to reconsider restrictions to travel that have been imposed between them – including quarantines”, state the three associations in the letter. “We fail to see any valid science-based and proportionate justification for such restrictions from a health policy perspective”.

The aviation associations assert that renewed efforts must be urgently put into:

  • Effectively co-ordinating and aligning responses to the evolving epidemiological situation at EU level and in close co-operation with the UK, to be addressed urgently and jointly by home affairs, transport and health ministries and the European Commission;
  • Re-enforcing the principle of risk-based and proportionate measures – localising restrictions and NOT imposing blanket country bans, with quarantine used as a very last resport – following ECDC guidance;
  • Ensuring the interoperabiliy of contact tracing apps, as none of the existing apps are interoperable;
  • A harmonised implementation of the EASA/ECDC and ICAO Take-Off Aviation Health Safety Protocols;
  • Informing the public accordingly and in close cooperation with the travel and tourism industries.

IATA: Recovery delayed as international travel remains locked down

IATA has made this announcement:

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released an updated global passenger forecast showing that the recovery in traffic has been slower than had been expected.

In the base case scenario:

  • Global passenger traffic (revenue passenger kilometers or RPKs) will not return to pre-COVID-19 levels until 2024, a year later than previously projected.
  • The recovery in short haul travel is still expected to happen faster than for long haul travel. As a result, passenger numbers will recover faster than traffic measured in RPKs. Recovery to pre-COVID-19 levels, however, will also slide by a year from 2022 to 2023. For 2020, global passenger numbers (enplanements) are expected to decline by 55% compared to 2019, worsened from the April forecast of 46%.

June 2020 passenger traffic foreshadowed the slower-than-expected recovery. Traffic, measures in RPK, fell 86.5% compared to the year-ago period. That is only slightly improved from a 91.0% contraction in May. This was driven by rising demand in domestic markets, particularly China. The June load factor set an all-time low for the month at 57.6%.

The more pessimistic recovery outlook is based on a number of recent trends:

  • Slow virus containment in the US and developing economies: Although developed economies outside of the US have been largely successful in containing the spread of the virus, renewed outbreaks have occurred in these economies, and in China. Furthermore there is little sign of virus containment in many important emerging economies, which in combination with the US, represent around 40% of global air travel markets. Their continued closure, particularly to international travel, is a significant drag on recovery.
  • Reduced corporate travel: Corporate travel budgets are expected to be very constrained as companies continue to be under financial pressure even as the economy improves. In addition, while historically GDP growth and air travel have been highly correlated, surveys suggest this link has weakened, particularly with regard to business travel, as video conferencing appears to have made significant inroads as a substitute for in-person meetings.
  • Weak consumer confidence: While pent-up demand exists for VFR (visiting friends and relatives) and leisure travel, consumer confidence is weak in the face of concerns over job security and rising unemployment, as well as risks of catching COVID-19. Some 55% of respondents to IATA’s June passenger survey don’t plan to travel in 2020.

Owing to these factors, IATA’s revised baseline forecast is for global enplanements to fall 55% in 2020 compared to 2019 (the April forecast was for a 46% decline). Passenger numbers are expected to rise 62% in 2021 off the depressed 2020 base, but still will be down almost 30% compared to 2019. A full recovery to 2019 levels is not expected until 2023, one year later than previously forecast.

Meanwhile, since domestic markets are opening ahead of international markets, and because passengers appear to prefer short haul travel in the current environment, RPKs will recover more slowly, with passenger traffic expected to return to 2019 levels in 2024, one year later than previously forecast. Scientific advances in fighting COVID-19 including development of a successful vaccine, could allow a faster recovery. However, at present there appears to be more downside risk than upside to the baseline forecast.

“Passenger traffic hit bottom in April, but the strength of the upturn has been very weak. What improvement we have seen has been domestic flying. International markets remain largely closed. Consumer confidence is depressed and not helped by the UK’s weekend decision to impose a blanket quarantine on all travelers returning from Spain. And in many parts of the world infections are still rising. All of this points to a longer recovery period and more pain for the industry and the global economy,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

“For airlines, this is bad news that points to the need for governments to continue with relief measures—financial and otherwise. A full Northern Winter season waiver on the 80-20 use-it-or-lose it slot rule, for example, would provide critical relief to airlines in planning schedules amid unpredictable demand patterns. Airlines are planning their schedules. They need to keep sharply focused on meeting demand and not meeting slot rules that were never meant to accommodate the sharp fluctuations of a crisis. The earlier we know the slot rules the better, but we are still waiting for governments in key markets to confirm a waiver,” said de Juniac.

June 2020 Performance

 

JUNE 2020 (% YEAR-ON-YEAR) WORLD SHARE1 RPK ASK PLF (%-PT)​2 PLF (LEVEL)​3
Total Market
100.0%
-86.5%
-80.1%
-26.8%
57.6%
Africa
2.1%
-96.5%
-84.5%
-54.9%
16.2%
Asia Pacific
34.6%
-74.4%
-69.6%
-18.5%
63.8%
Europe
26.8%
-93.7%
-90.0%
-31.9%
55.5%
Latin America
5.1%
-91.2%
-89.0%
-16.7%
66.6%
Middle East
9.1%
-95.5%
-90.4%
-40.7%
35.7%
North America
22.3%
-86.3%
-76.9%
-36.5%
52.4%

1) % of industry RPKs in 2019     2) Year-on-year change in load factor     3) Load Factor Level

International Passenger Markets

June international traffic shrank by 96.8% compared to June 2019, only slightly improved over a 98.3% decline in May, year-over-year. Capacity fell 93.2% and load factor contracted 44.7 percentage points to 38.9%.

Asia-Pacific airlines’ June traffic plummeted 97.1% compared to the year-ago period, little improved from the 98.1% decline in May. Capacity fell 93.4% and load factor shrank 45.8 percentage points to 35.6%.

European carriers saw demand topple 96.7% in June versus a year ago, compared to a 98.7% decline in May. Capacity dropped 94.4% and load factor lessened 35.7 percentage points to 52.0%.

Middle Eastern airlines traffic collapsed 96.1% for June against June 2019, compared with a 97.7% demand drop in May. Capacity contracted 91.1%, and load factor crumbled to 33.3%, down 43.1% percentage points compared to a year ago. 

North American carriers had a 97.2% traffic decline in June, barely improved from a 98.3% decline in May. Capacity fell 92.8%, and load factor dropped 53.8 percentage points to 34.1%.

Latin American airlines suffered a 96.6% demand drop in June compared to the same month last year, from a 98.1% drop in May. Capacity fell 95.7% and load factor sagged 17.7 percentage points to 66.2%, which was the highest among the regions.

African airlines’ traffic sank 98.1% in June, little changed from a 98.6% demand drop in May. Capacity contracted 84.5%, and load factor dived 62.1 percentage points to just 8.9% of seats filled, lowest among regions.

Domestic Passenger Markets

Domestic traffic demand fell 67.6% in June, improved from a 78.4% decline in May. Capacity fell 55.9% and load factor dropped 22.8 percentage points to 62.9%.

JUNE 2020 (% YEAR-ON-YEAR) WORLD SHARE1 RPK ASK PLF (%-PT)​2 PLF (LEVEL)​3
Domestic
36.2%
-67.6%
-55.9%
-22.8%
62.9%
Australia
0.8%
-93.8%
-89.1%
-33.8%
44.4%
Brazil
1.1%
-84.7%
-83.3%
-7.1%
74.7%
China P.R.
9.8%
-35.5%
-21.3%
-15.2%
69.5%
Japan
1.1%
-74.9%
-63.4%
-22.4%
48.8%
Russian Fed.
1.5%
-58.0%
-36.4%
-28.9%
56.4%
US
14.0%
-80.1%
-67.4%
-34.9%
54.7%

1) % of industry RPKs in 2019     2) Year-on-year change in load factor     3) Load Factor Level

China’s carriers continued to lead the recovery, with traffic down 35.5% in June compared to the year-ago period, raised from a 46.3% decline in May.

Japan’s airlines saw improved domestic demand after the state of COVID-19 emergency was lifted in late May. Domestic RPKs fell by 74.9% year-on-year in June, compared with around 90% annual declines in the previous two months.

The Bottom Line

Domestic traffic improvements notwithstanding, international traffic, which in normal times accounts for close to two-thirds of global air travel, remains virtually non-existent. Most countries are still closed to international arrivals or have imposed quarantines, that have the same effect as an outright lockdown. Summer — our industry’s busiest season — is passing by rapidly; with little chance for an upswing in international air travel unless governments move quickly and decisively to find alternatives to border closures, confidence-destroying stop-start re-openings and demand-killing quarantine,” said de Juniac.

IATA urges governments to implement a layer of measures including the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO’s) global guidelines for restoring air connectivity contained in ICAO’s Takeoff: Guidance for Air Travel through the COVID-19 Public Health Crisis. IATA also sees potential for accurate, fast, scalable and affordable testing measures and comprehensive contact tracing to play a role in managing the risk of virus spread while re-connecting economies and re-starting travel and tourism. “We need to learn to manage the risks of living with COVID-19 with targeted and predictable measures that will safely re-build traveler confidence and shattered economies,” said de Juniac.

IATA: Traveler survey reveals COVID-19 concerns

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released public opinion research showing the willingness to travel being tempered by concerns over the risks of catching COVID-19 during air travel. The industry’s re-start plans address passenger’s main concerns.

Concerns for Travel During COVID-19

Travelers are taking precautions to protect themselves from COVID-19 with 77% saying that they are washing their hands more frequently, 71% avoiding large meetings and 67% having worn a facemask in public. Some 58% of those surveyed said that they have avoided air travel, with 33% suggesting that they will avoid travel in future as a continued measure to reduce the risk of catching COVID-19.

 

Travelers identified their top three concerns as follows:

At the airport
On board Aircraft
1. Being in a crowded bus/train on the way to the aircraft (59%)
1. Sitting next to someone who might be infected (65%)
2. Queuing at check-in/security/border control or boarding (42%)
2. Using restrooms/toilet facilities (42%)
3. Using airport restrooms/toilet facilities (38%)
3. Breathing the air on the plane (37%)

 

When asked to rank the top three measures that would make them feel safer, 37% cited COVID-19 screening at departure airports, 34% agreed with mandatory wearing of facemasks and 33% noted social distancing measures on aircraft.

Passengers themselves displayed a willingness to play a role in keeping flying safe by:

  1. Undergoing temperature checks (43%)
  2. Wearing a mask during travel (42%)
  3. Checking-in online to minimize interactions at the airport (40%)
  4. Taking a COVID-19 test prior to travel (39%)
  5. Sanitizing their seating area (38%).

“People are clearly concerned about COVID-19 when traveling. But they are also reassured by the practical measures being introduced by governments and the industry under the Take-off guidance developed by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). These include mask-wearing, the introduction of contactless technology in travel processes and screening measures. This tells us that we are on the right track to restoring confidence in travel. But it will take time. To have maximum effect, it is critical that governments deploy these measures globally,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

The survey also pointed to some key issues in restoring confidence where the industry will need to communicate the facts more effectively. Travelers’ top on board concerns include:

Cabin air quality: Travelers have not made up their minds about cabin air quality. While 57% of travelers believed that air quality is dangerous, 55% also responded that they understood that it was as clean as the air in a hospital operating theatre. The quality of air in modern aircraft is, in fact, far better than most other enclosed environments. It is exchanged with fresh air every 2-3 minutes, whereas the air in most office buildings is exchanged 2-3 times per hour. Moreover, High Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) filters capture well over 99.999% of germs, including the Coronavirus.

Social distancing: Governments advise to wear a mask (or face covering) when social distancing is not possible, as is the case with public transport. This aligns with the expert ICAO Take-off guidance. Additionally, while passengers are sitting in close proximity on board, the cabin air flow is from ceiling to floor. This limits the potential spread of viruses or germs backwards or forwards in the cabin. There are several other natural barriers to the transmission of the virus on board, including the forward orientation of passengers (limiting face-to-face interaction), seatbacks that limit transmission from row-to-row, and the limited movement of passengers in the cabin.

There is no requirement for social distancing measures on board the aircraft from highly respected aviation authorities such as the US Federal Aviation Administration, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency or ICAO.

“It is no secret that passengers have concerns about the risk of transmission onboard. They should be reassured by the many built-in anti-virus features of the air flow system and forward-facing seating arrangements. On top of this, screening before flight and facial coverings are among the extra layers of protection that are being implemented by industry and governments on the advice of ICAO and the World Health Organization. No environment is risk free, but few environments are as controlled as the aircraft cabin. And we need to make sure that travelers understand that,” said de Juniac.

No Quick Solution

While nearly half of those surveyed (45%) indicated the they would return to travel within a few months of the pandemic subsiding, this is a significant drop from the 61% recorded in the April survey. Overall, the survey results demonstrate that people have not lost their taste for travel, but there are blockers to returning to pre-crisis levels of travel:

 

  • A majority of travelers surveyed plan to return to travel to see family and friends (57%), to vacation (56%) or to do business (55%) as soon as possible after the pandemic subsides.
  • But, 66% said that they would travel less for leisure and business in the post-pandemic world.
  • And 64% indicated that they would postpone travel until economic factors improved (personal and broader).

“This crisis could have a very long shadow. Passengers are telling us that it will take time before they return to their old travel habits. Many airlines are not planning for demand to return to 2019 levels until 2023 or 2024. Numerous governments have responded with financial lifelines and other relief measures at the height of the crisis. As some parts of the world are starting the long road to recovery, it is critical that governments stay engaged. Continued relief measures like alleviation from use-it-or-lose it slot rules, reduced taxes or cost reduction measures will be critical for some time to come,” said de Juniac.

One of the biggest blockers to industry recovery is quarantine. Some 85% of travelers reported concern for being quarantined while traveling, a similar level of concern to those reporting general concern for catching the virus when traveling (84%). And, among the measures that travelers were willing to take in adapting to travel during or after the pandemic, only 17% reported that they were will willing to undergo quarantine.

“Quarantine is a demand killer. Keeping borders closed prolongs the pain by causing economic hardship well beyond airlines. If governments want to re-start their tourism sectors, alternative risk-based measures are needed. Many are built into the ICAO Take-off guidelines, like health screening before departure to discourage symptomatic people from traveling. Airlines are helping this effort with flexible rebooking policies. In these last days we have seen the UK and the EU announce risk-based calculations for opening their borders. And other countries have chosen testing options. Where there is a will to open up, there are ways to do it responsibly,” said de Juniac.

The Survey

The 11-country survey, which was conducted during the first week of June 2020, assessed traveler concerns during the pandemic and the potential timelines for their return to travel. This is the third wave of the survey, with previous waves conducted at the end of February and the beginning of April. All those surveyed had taken at least one flight since July 2019.

Can major airlines survive as long as COVID-19 continues to spread?

All major U.S. airlines are burning through cash every day. No one is making a profit. It could be a long time before any U.S. airline turns a profit with a spreading COVID-19 pandemic.

COVID-19 new cases in the United States (John Hopkins University).

Americans cannot travel to the European Union, a first in many summer seasons. This is cutting off a normal gigantic revenue stream for many U.S. carriers. This has grounded many wide-body airliners.

In this article by Lance Brofman, he states “Without infusions of cash from the government, it is unlikely that any of the legacy airlines could ever get to breakeven as long as COVID-19 is still a factor. Even without the cash burn and non-cash losses, since March 31, 2019, Delta Air Lines (DAL) probably has no shareholder equity left now.”

He continues:

“All the worlds’ airlines are suffering from unprecedented declines in revenue. However, among airlines in the developed world, American airlines are facing additional problems. The world is devolving into two categories of countries with regard to COVID-19. Those countries with COVID-19 and those without. New Zealand and Iceland have already reported no new cases of COVID-19. Australia, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Denmark, Greece and South Korea are well on their way in totally eradicating COVID-19. Countries that have or are very close to eradicating COVID-19 are now working on plans for a “travel bubble” where travel between those countries will not be restricted. As other countries also eradicate COVID-19, travel between them will be allowed without 14-day mandatory quarantines upon arrival. America will almost certainly be among the last developed countries to have no COVID-19 cases…”

If correct, this is very bad news for struggling U.S. airlines.

Read the full article.

Bottom line question: Are U.S. airlines becoming worthless? The same question applies to cruise ship companies, hotel chains and the travel industry in general.

In the United States, many former airline travelers are now opting to travel by car or even a RV for a vacation to avoid sitting next to a suspect passenger in a pandemic.

Every U.S. airline is now stressing the steps they are taking in making every aircraft as clean as possible.

Photos: Delta Air Lines.

Here is Delta Air Lines latest reassurance.

Is it working? For some people, yes they are willing to take the risk. However will the U.S. airlines ever get back to where they were pre-COVID-19? Probably not until the pandemic is tamed.

According to Airlines for America, “despite a recent uptick in air travel, passenger volumes remain down about 80 percent”.

According to Airlines for America, 40 percent of the U.S. passenger airline fleet remains grounded. Each of those aircraft have payment schedules. An idle aircraft is a drain on airline finances. Hence the daily cash burn. Having a large grounded fleet is now a curse.

The COVID-19 pandemic has reshuffled the cards and airlines will need to reinvent themselves in order to survive. This probably means being a lot smaller. However does the business model still work? For some airlines, like Ryanair, having a crowded, full aircraft is their business plan in order to offer their low attractive fares.

Worldwide, the situation is not much better for airlines. Although there are areas where the pandemic has been somewhat controlled (see above), as long as COVID-19 is increasing worldwide there is the risk of reinfection in many countries (hence the actions of the European Union). Airlines depend on travel between countries. As long as there are barriers between countries due to a pandemic, airlines will be restrained from making a profit.

Worldwide COVID-19 cases (John Hopkins University).

Many countries have instituted “quarantine on arrival” procedures which has made international travel a difficult proposition. Many potential travelers cannot afford to quarantine when they arrive and have decided not to travel. As a result, international travel is taking a major hit along with the airlines.

IATA issued this statement on this subject for Africa and the Middle East:

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) urged governments in Africa and the Middle East (AME) to implement alternatives to quarantine on arrival that would allow economies to re-start while avoiding the importation of COVID-19 cases.

Government-imposed quarantine measures in 36 countries across Africa and the Middle East (AME) account for 40% of all quarantine measures globally. With over 80% of travelers unwilling to travel when quarantine is required, the impact of these measures is that countries remain in lockdown even if their borders are open. 

“It is critical that AME governments implement alternatives to quarantine measures. AME has the highest number of countries in the world with government-imposed quarantine measures on arriving passengers. The region is effectively in complete lockdown with the travel and tourism sector shuttered. This is detrimental in a region where 8.6 million people depend on aviation for their livelihoods,” said Muhammad Albakri, IATA’s Regional Vice President for Africa and the Middle East.

IATA proposes a layering of measures to protect public health while re-starting aviation, focused in two areas:

  • Reducing the risk of imported cases via travelers
    • Discouraging symptomatic passengers from traveling with airlines offering flexibility to passengers who need to adjust their schedule.
    • Public health risk mitigation measures such as health screening by governments in the form of health declarations.
    • COVID-19 testing for travelers from countries perceived to be “higher-risk” when accurate and fast testing is available at scale.
  • Mitigating Risk in Cases Where an Infected Person Does Travel
  • Reducing the risk of transmission during the air travel journey with the implementation of the Take-Off guidelines published by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).
  • Contact tracing to efficiently isolate any traveler who may become symptomatic and infectious after arrival.
  • Reducing risk of transmission at destination through overall government measures to fight the virus.

“Implementing a layered approach should give governments the confidence to open borders without quarantine, and passengers the confidence to fly. Air connectivity is critical to economic and sustainable development in and across AME,” said Albakri.

Effect of COVID-19 on AME 

Economies across AME have been devastated by COVID-19, and the aviation industry has been especially hard-hit. Across the region, more than 8.6 million jobs in the airline industry and those businesses supported by aviation are at risk. Thousands of jobs have already been lost due to the shutdown of air traffic.

The latest assessment from IATA Economics shows that the outlook at national level has worsened for major aviation markets in the region since April. For example, the passenger numbers, airline revenue and jobs at risk impacts for the four biggest AME markets have declined across every metric:

COUNTRY APRIL -PAX DEMAND JUNE – PAX DEMAND APRIL – ARL REVENUE JUNE – ARL REVENUE APRIL – JOBS AT RISK JUNE – JOBS AT RISK
South Africa
-14.5 million
-15.61 million
-3.02 billion
-3.2 billion
– 251,100
-269,900
Nigeria
-4.7 million
-5.32 million
-0.99 billion
-1.1 billion
– 125,400
-139,500
Kenya
-3.5 million
-3.75 million
-0.73 billion
-0.8 billion
– 193,300
– 207,800
Ethiopia
-2.5 million
-2.62 million
-0.43 billion
-0.5 billion
-500,500
– 530,400
Saudi Arabia
-35 million
-36.41 million
-7.2 billion
-7.4 billion
-287,500
– 299,200
UAE
-31 million
-32.33 million
-6.8 billion
-7.1 billion
– 378,700
– 392,900
Egypt
-13 million
-13.79 million
-1.66 billion
-2.3 billion
– 205,560
– 297,200
Qatar
-3.6 million
-1.32 million
-1.7 billion
-1.7 billion
– 53,640
– 72,700
Jordan
-3.5 million
-3.78 million
-0.7 billion
-0.7 billion
– 34,000
– 36,660

What have we learned? We truly are a worldwide community which the airplane has helped to promote (and exploit). However in a pandemic, the worldwide community is as only as good as its weakest partners.

Airplanes cannot fly between unequal partners.

A year from now, which airlines will have survived and which ones will be gone? Stay tuned.

IATA: “The worst may be yet to come” – Impacts of COVID-19 on European aviation and economy increasing

IATA (International Air Transport Association) represents some 290 airlines comprising 82% of global air traffic.

IATA has released this statement:

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) revealed new research showing the impacts on the European aviation industry and on economies caused by the shutdown of air traffic due to the COVID-19 pandemic have worsened over recent weeks.

Airlines in Europe are set to lose $21.5 billion in 2020, with passenger demand declining by over half. This puts at risk between 6-7 million jobs supported by aviation in Europe alone. An accelerated recovery of air transport in Europe is vital if the worst of these impacts is to be avoided. This can be achieved through government action in two priority areas:

1. A coordinated restart of air travel, with the opening up borders (including elimination of quarantine) and operating rules based on the health guidance set down by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and at European level by the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) and the European Centre for Disease Control (ECDC).

2. Continued financial and regulatory support, particularly direct financial aid, an extension of the waiver to the 80-20 slot rule, and relief from taxes and charges.

Europe’s economies have been brought to their knees by COVID-19, and the aviation industry has been especially hard-hit. Recent optimism over the opening of the Schengen borders should not obscure the critical seriousness of the situation. Across Europe, more than six million jobs in the airline industry and those businesses supported by aviation are at risk. Thousands of jobs have already been lost due to the shutdown of air traffic. For our future prosperity it is imperative that the industry recovers as soon as possible,” said Rafael Schvartzman, IATA’s Regional Vice President for Europe.

The latest assessment from IATA Economics shows that the outlook at national level has worsened for major aviation markets in Europe since April. For example, the passenger numbers, airline revenue, jobs at risk and GDP impacts for the five biggest European markets have declined across every metric:

COUNTRY APRIL PAX ESTIMATES JUNE PAX ESTIMATES APRIL JOBS AT RISK JUNE JOBS AT RISK APRIL GDP JUNE GDP
UK
-140 million
-154 million
-661,200
-732,500
-$50.3bn
-$55.7bn
Spain
-114 million
-124.5 million
-901,300
-983,100
-$59.4bn
-$64.7bn
Germany
-103 million
-113.4 million
-483,600
-534,000
-$34bn
-$37.6bn
Italy
-83 million
-92 million
-310,400
-345,300
-$21.1bn
-$23.5bn
France
-80 million
-88.7 million
-392,500
-434.700
-$35.2bn
-$38.9bn

 

1. Coordinated restart

It is essential that governments coordinate to restart air connectivity consistently and in line with international best practice. The guidance set out by ICAO is broadly consistent with measures recommended by EASA/ECDC and strikes the right balance between safeguarding public health while permitting viable air services. The measures, including more thorough and frequent cleaning, and the wearing of face masks, further reduce the already low risk of transmission on board. Other measures, such as airport screening where appropriate, discouraging symptomatic passengers from travelling, and safe destination protocols, can also reduce the role of aviation as a potential source of international re-infection, and render quarantine unnecessary.

Quarantine measures are a huge impediment to a recovery in air traffic. Our latest passenger survey shows that 78% of people in France, 76% in Germany and 83% in the UK will not travel if a quarantine is in place. Therefore, governments looking to reopen their economies need an alternative, risk-based solution. The answer is a strategy that combines coordinated, internationally-consistent health measures for air travel with effective national plans for managing COVID-19,” said Schvartzman.

2. Continued financial and regulatory aid

Many European governments have recognized the strategic importance of their aviation industries and provided support. It is important to note, however, that much of the financial aid has been in the form of loans, which are adding to the debt burden for airlines and which will hinder their ability to invest in new services, cleaner aircraft, and expanded employment going forward.

We are grateful to governments who have provided assistance so far to our industry. Those actions have saved thousands of jobs and are enabling airlines to keep connectivity going. But I’m afraid the worst may be yet to come. Airlines rely on the summer season to provide a financial cushion for the more challenging winter months. But we know that European airlines are set to lose $21 billion this year. There will be no summer cushion. Continued relief measures will be essential to minimize job losses and maintain transport links. We would urge European regulators to prioritize an extension to the waiver granted for the slot use rules, and to consider other forms of financial aid that will not add to the growing debt burden weighing airlines down,” said Schvartzman.

Impact of COVID-19 on European Aviation (June 2020):

IATA: Airlines will need further help to get through the winter, overall bookings are down 82% year-on-year

IATA has released this statement:

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) warned that the airline industry faces a hard winter and called on governments around the world to continue providing relief measures as the COVID-19 crisis continues.

Airlines are expected to post a loss of $84.3 billion in 2020 and government financial relief is a lifeline to many airlines. The bulk of airlines make their money in the northern summer season, while the winter season, even in the best of times, is a struggle to remain profitable. For example, the 2019 net profit margin for European airlines followed the normal seasonal pattern and was 9% and 17% respectively in Q2 and Q3 (northern summer). But it started at -1% in Q1 and finished the year at 2% in Q4 (northern winter). The winter season will be even more challenging amid the recovery from COVID-19.

Public opinion research in the first week of June 2020 showed greater caution among travelers in returning to travel. Only 45% of travelers surveyed intend to return to the skies within a few months of the pandemic subsiding. A further 36% said that they would wait six months. That is a significant shift from April 2020 when 61% said that they would return to travel within a few months of the pandemic subsiding and 21% responded that they would wait about six months.

The survey findings are corroborated in key passenger trends demonstrating continuing market uncertainty:

  • Overall bookings are down 82% year-on-year compared to June 2019.
  • Long-haul forward bookings for the first week in November 2020 are 59% below normal levels. Historical trends show about 14% of airline tickets are sold 22 weeks in advance of travel. Current bookings for 1-7 November show that tickets have been sold to only 5% of the 2019 number of passengers.
  • Passengers are booking closer to the time of travel. Bookings for travel 20 or more days in the future accounted for 29% of bookings made in May 2020, down from 49% in 2019. Similarly, 41% of bookings made in May 2020 were for travel within 3 days, more than double the 18% in May 2019.

“People are returning to the skies but the horizon of uncertainty of the COVID-19 crisis is extending. Forward bookings are down, and people are hedging their travel bets by booking closer to the time of travel. Airlines in the Northern hemisphere rely on a strong summer season and a predictable booking curve to get them through the lean months. But neither of these conditions are in place and airlines will need continued help from governments to survive a hard winter. Airlines will need much more flexibility to plan schedules around these changing consumer trends. Financial and operational flexibility equals survival,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

IATA highlighted four keys areas where governments could assist airlines:

  • Extending the waiver from the 80-20 use-it-or-lose-it rule in the Worldwide Airport Slot Guidelines. In these extraordinary times, airlines need much more flexibility to plan schedules and business critical decisions should not be compromised by slot allocation guidelines designed for normal times. “There were good reasons why the 80-20 rule was waived for the summer season. Regulators should apply the same common-sense approach again and waive the rule for the winter season as well. Airlines need to focus on meeting what consumers want today, without trying to defend the slots needed for what their schedule might look like a year from now,” said de Juniac.
  • Continued financial assistance in ways that do not increase industry debt levels which have risen sharply. Some governments are exploring measures including subsidizing domestic operations and waiving airport and air traffic control charges.
  • Extensions to wage subsidies and corporate taxation relief measures. The wage subsidy schemes have provided some $35 billion in relief to airlines. Tapering these more slowly would give airlines more time to recover and minimize job losses. Relief for corporate and indirect taxes such as VAT, passenger taxes or fuel taxes would support market stimulus.
  • Avoiding increases in charges and fees. While airports and air navigation service providers have suffered revenue falls, steep increases in charges must be avoided during the restart period as this will severely impact airline financials and market recovery. Similarly, governments should cover the costs of new health measures imposed as a result of COVID-19.

“Each day sees more people traveling. That’s good for the economy. The numbers are moving in the right direction, but we are by no means anywhere near normal or sustainable levels of activity. Financial relief measures are still desperately needed. And policy-relief measures like a slot usage waiver remain critical. Governments need to grant that by no later than the end of July to provide at least that certainty for this beleaguered and battered industry,” said de Juniac.

From John Hopkins: Meanwhile the number of new COVID-19 worldwide cases is not showing signs of slowing down.

 

COVID-19 impact on Asia-Pacific aviation worsens

IATA has issued this report:

The latest estimates from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) indicate a worsening of the country impact from the COVID-19 crisis in the Asia Pacific region.

On April 14, 2020, IATA released updated analysis showing that the COVID-19 crisis will see global airline passenger revenues drop by US$314 billion in 2020, a 55% decline compared to 2019. Airlines in Asia Pacific will see the largest revenue drop of US$113 billion in 2020 compared to 2019 (-US$88 billion in 24 March estimate), and a 50% fall in passenger demand in 2020 compared to 2019 (-37% in 24 March estimate). These estimates are based on a scenario of severe travel restrictions lasting for three months, with a gradual lifting of restrictions in domestic markets, followed by regional and intercontinental.

“The situation is deteriorating.  Airlines are in survival mode. They face a liquidity crisis with a US$61 billion cash burn in the second quarter. We have seen the first airline casualty in the region. There will be more casualties if governments do not step in urgently to ensure airlines have sufficient cash flow to tide them over this period,” said Conrad Clifford, IATA’s Regional Vice President, Asia-Pacific. He identified India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Republic of Korea, Sri Lanka and Thailand as priority countries that need to take action. IATA is calling for a combination of:

  • direct financial support
  • loans, loan guarantees and support for the corporate bond market
  • tax relief

“Providing support for airlines has a broader economic implication. Jobs across many sectors will be impacted if airlines do not survive the COVID-19 crisis. Every airline job supports another 24 in the travel and tourism value chain. In Asia-Pacific, 11.2 million jobs are at risk, including those that are dependent on the aviation industry, such as travel and tourism,” said Clifford.

“Airlines continue to perform an important role currently with the transport of essential goods, including medical supplies, and the repatriation of thousands of people stranded around the world by travel restrictions. And after the COVID-19 pandemic is contained, governments will need airlines to support the economic recovery, connect manufacturing hubs and support tourism. That’s why they need to act now – and urgently – before it is too late,” said Clifford.

Details of the latest country impact are given below.

COUNTRY PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN PASSENGER DEMAND (2020 VS 2019) PASSENGER DEMAND IMPACT (ORIGIN-DESTINATION VOLUMES – 2020 VS 2019) REVENUE IMPACT (US$, MILLIONS – 2020 VS 2019) POTENTIAL JOBS IMPACT 
Australia
-51%
-50,510,000
-14,255
-362,100
Bangladesh
-48%
-5,541,000
-1,073
-61,900
Brunei Darussalam
-50%
-605,000
-114
-8,500
Cambodia
-45%
-5,390,000
-866
-770,000
Fiji
-51%
-1,158,000
-305
-65,100
India
-47%
-89,764,000
-11,221
-2,932,900
Indonesia
-49%
-59,756,000
-8,225
-2,069,000
Japan
-50%
-93,862,000
-22,625
-585,900
Laos
-51%
-1,618,000
-220
-23,800
Malaysia
51%
-33,513,000
-4,236
-220,500
Maldives
-51%
-2,747,000
-639
-37,200
Myanmar
-48%
-4,377,000
-691
-245,200
Nepal
-51%
-3,422,000
-522
-229,900
New Zealand
-50%
-12,865,000
-3,388
-170,100
Pakistan
-52%
-9,866,000
-1,829
-259,400
Philippines
-47%
-28,852,000
-4,481
-548,300
Republic of Korea
-52%
-59,219,000
-10,755
-371,200
Singapore
-48%
-23,897,000
-6,732
-169,000
Sri Lanka
-58%
-4,049,000
-715
-408,200
Thailand
-52%
-55,562,000
-8,289
-2,167,000
Vietnam
-45%
-31,902,000
-4,347
-989,500

For Europe, IATA issued this report:

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released further evidence of the risk to jobs from the mounting financial crisis threatening European airlines, and called for urgent government action to preserve air services.

IATA’s analysis shows that the potential revenue loss by European carriers in 2020 has grown to $89 billion and passenger demand (measured in Revenue Passenger Kilometers) is projected to be 55% below 2019 levels. This is an increase over the previous estimates (released 24 March) of $76 billion and 46% respectively. Overall, we estimate that the present 90% collapse in air traffic puts around 6.7 million jobs at risk and could lead to a negative GDP impact of $452 billion across Europe. This equates to an additional 1.1 million jobs and $74 billion in GDP over the March estimates of 5.6 million jobs and $378 billion.

The increasing risk to jobs and GDP is due to a greater impact than previously expected from the air travel restrictions introduced as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. IATA’s new analysis is based on a scenario of severe travel restrictions lasting for three months, with a gradual lifting of restrictions in domestic markets, followed by regional and intercontinental travel.

Some of the impacts at national level include:

  • United Kingdom: 140 million fewer passengers resulting in a $26.1bn revenue loss, risking almost 661,200 jobs and around $50.3bn in contribution to the UK economy.
  • Spain :114 million fewer passengers resulting in a $15.5bn revenue loss, risking 901,300 jobs and $59.4bn in contribution to Spain’s economy.
  • Germany: 103 million fewer passengers resulting in a $17.9bn revenue loss, risking 483,600 jobs and $34bn in contribution to Germany’s economy.
  • Italy: 83 million fewer passengers resulting in a $11.5bn revenue loss, risking 310,400 jobs and $21.1bn in contribution to Italy’s economy.
  • France: 80 million fewer passengers resulting in a $14.3bn revenue loss, risking 392,500 jobs and $35.2bn in contribution to France’s economy.

It is essential that governments move quickly to minimize this economic damage. Among the first priorities should be direct financial support, loans and tax relief to airlines. Regulatory relief is also crucial, especially a temporary amendment to EU261 to give greater flexibility on the terms of repayments for cancelled flights.

“Every job created in the aviation industry supports another 24 jobs in the wider economy. Unfortunately, that means that when aviation jobs disappear, the impact is magnified across the economy. Our latest impact assessment shows that the number of jobs at risk has increased to 6.7 million across Europe. As airlines face an unprecedented liquidity crisis, we desperately need European government financial and regulatory support,“ said Rafael Schvartzman, IATA’s Regional Vice President for Europe.

Restarting air travel

 While airlines fight for survival, the industry is looking to plan for a restart of air connectivity once restrictions begin to be lifted. A number of requirements to ensure a successful restart have been identified:

  • Confidence-building measures will be needed to encourage a return to travel. This will mean governments providing economic stimulus, and coordinated measures to ensure that travel is safe
  • Governments should lean on the industry’s operational expertise to ensure efficient results
  • Global standards with mutual recognition will be essential for successful implementation
  • Any temporary measures introduced by governments should be exercised with a clear exit strategy.

“The world will rely on airlines and air connectivity to restore the global economy. A successful restart of the industry will be crucial. To help with that, IATA is hosting a series of regional summits to bring governments and key stakeholders together, to maximize the chances of an orderly restart. Harmonization and coordination of measures will be vital. And as always, we will be led by the science in terms of what can be implemented effectively,” said Schvartzman.

IATA: 25 million jobs at risk with airline shutdown

IATA has made this announcement:

The International Air Transport Association has released  new analysis showing that some 25 million jobs are at risk of disappearing with plummeting demand for air travel amid the COVID-19 crisis.

Globally, the livelihoods of some 65.5 million people are dependent on the aviation industry, including sectors such as travel and tourism. Among these are 2.7 million airlines jobs. In a scenario of severe travel restrictions lasting for three months, IATA research calculates that 25 million jobs in aviation and related sectors are endangered across the world:

  • 11.2 million jobs in Asia-Pacific
  • 5.6 million jobs in Europe
  • 2.9 million jobs in Latin America
  • 2.0 million jobs in North America
  • 2.0 million jobs in Africa
  • 0.9 million jobs in the Middle East

In the same scenario, airlines are expected to see full year passenger revenues fall by $252 billion (-44%) in 2020 compared to 2019. The second quarter is the most critical with demand falling 70% at its worst point, and airlines burning through $61 billion in cash.

Airlines are calling on governments to provide immediate financial aid to help airlines to remain viable businesses able to lead the recovery when the pandemic is contained. Specifically, IATA calls for:

  • Direct financial support
  • Loans, loan guarantees and support for the corporate bond market
  • Tax relief

“There are no words to adequately describe the devastating impact of COVID-19 on the airline industry. And the economic pain will be shared by 25 million people who work in jobs dependent upon airlines. Airlines must be viable businesses so that they can lead the recovery when the pandemic is contained. A lifeline to the airlines now is critical,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

Looking Ahead: Re-booting the Industry

Alongside vital financial relief, the industry will also need careful planning and coordination to ensure that airlines are ready when the pandemic is contained.

 

“We have never shuttered the industry on this scale before. Consequently, we have no experience in starting it up. It will be complicated. At the practical level, we will need contingencies for licenses and certifications that have expired. We will have to adapt operations and processes to avoid reinfections via imported cases. And we must find a predictable and efficient approach to managing travel restrictions which need to be lifted before we can get back to work. These are just some of the major tasks that are ahead of us. And to be successful, industry and government must be aligned and working together,” said de Juniac.

IATA is scoping a comprehensive approach to re-booting the industry when governments and public health authorities allow. A multi-stakeholder approach will be essential. One initial step is a series of virtual meetings—or summits—on a regional basis, bringing together governments and industry stakeholders. The main objectives will be:

  • Understanding what is needed to re-open closed borders, and
  • Agreeing solutions that can be operationalized and scaled efficiently

“We are not expecting to re-start the same industry that we closed a few weeks ago. Airlines will still connect the world. And we will do that through a variety of business models. But the industry processes will need to adapt. We must get on with this work quickly. We don’t want to repeat the mistakes made after 9.11 when many new processes were imposed in an uncoordinated way. We ended up with a mess of measures that we are still sorting out today. The 25 million people whose jobs are at risk by this crisis will depend on an efficient re-start of the industry,” said de Juniac.

Summit dates are being confirmed in the expectation of a start before the end of April.

IATA: European airlines revenue losses mount – urgent government support required

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) strengthened its call for urgent action from European governments to provide financial relief to airlines. The latest IATA scenario for potential revenue loss by European carriers is US$76 bn and passenger demand (measured in Revenue Passenger Kilometers) is projected to be 46% below 2019 levels. A decline of this magnitude puts at risk about 5.6 million jobs and $378bn in GDP supported by air transport.

Some of the impacts at national level include:

United Kingdom
113.5mn fewer passengers resulting in a $21.7bn revenue loss, risking almost 402,000 jobs and around $32.7bn in contribution to the UK economy.

Spain
93.7mn fewer passengers resulting in a $13bn revenue loss, risking 750,000 jobs and $49.4bn in contribution to Spain’s economy.

Germany
84.4mn fewer passengers resulting in a $15bn revenue loss, risking 400,000 jobs and $28bn in contribution to Germany’s economy.

Italy
7mn fewer passengers resulting in a $9.5bn revenue loss, risking 256,000 jobs and $67.4bn in contribution to Italy’s economy.

 

France
65mn fewer passengers resulting in a $12bn revenue loss, risking 318,000 jobs and $28.5bn in contribution to France’s economy.

To minimize the sweeping damage across the European economy that these losses would have, it is vital that governments step up their efforts to aid the industry. Some European governments have already acted, including Norway, Sweden, Finland, Spain, and Italy. But more help is needed. IATA is calling for a combination of:

  • Direct financial support,
  • Loans, loan guarantees and support for the corporate bond market
  • Tax relief

“The air transport industry is an economic engine, supporting up to 12.2 million jobs across Europe and $823 billion in GDP. Every job created in the aviation industry supports another 24 jobs in the wider economy. Governments must recognize the vital importance of the air transport industry, and that support is urgently needed. First, this will keep airlines financially viable during the present lockdown, preserving jobs, maintaining essential connections to repatriate citizens, and carrying life-saving air cargo supplies. Secondly, this would avoid broad economic damage by ensuring that airlines can rapidly scale-up operations when travel restrictions are lifted, jump-starting the European and global economies,” said Rafael Schvartzman, IATA’s Regional Vice President for Europe.

In addition to financial support, IATA called for regulators to provide relief measures. Key priorities in Europe include:

  • An urgent temporary amendment to the EU261 passenger rights regulation. Short-term flexibility is needed immediately. Permitting the use of vouchers instead of refunds, as has been allowed for some tour operators, would give airlines breathing space to repair cash flows.
  • Providing a package of measures to ensure air cargo operations, including fast track procedures to obtain overflight and landing permits, exempting flight crew members from 14-day quarantine, and removing economic impediments (overflight charges, parking fees, and slot restrictions).

“Some regulators are taking positive action. We are grateful to the European Council for insisting on a full-season waiver to the slot use rule. This will enable airlines and airports greater flexibility for this season and greater certainty for next summer. But there is more to do on the regulatory front. Amendments are urgently needed to give more flexibility for EU 261. And they must take measures to keep air cargo moving,” said Schvartzman.

NATION REVENUE IMPACT (US$, BILLIONS) PASSENGER DEMAND IMPACT (ORIGIN-DESTINATION VOLUMES, MILLIONS) POTENTIAL JOBS IMPACT POTENTIAL GDP IMPACT (US$, BILLIONS)
France
-12
-65
-318,000
-28.5
Germany
-15
-84.4
-400,000
-28
Greece
-3.2
-21.5
-193,000
-8.3
Ireland
-2
-15.2
-62,000
-8.9
Italy
-9.5
-67.7
-256,000
-17.4
Netherlands
-4.4
-23.4
-128,400
-10.5
Norway
-2.8
-20
-81,000
-8.7
Portugal
-3
-21.3
-141,000
-6
Russia
-7.1
-51.7
-330,000
-7.7
Spain
-13
-93.7
-750,000
-49.4
Sweden
-2.3
-17
-86,000
-8
Turkey
-5.5
-44.7
-427,000
-19
United Kingdom
-21.7
-113.5
-402,000
-32.7

 

IATA: Coronavirus could wipe out up to $113 billion in airline revenues this year

From IATA:

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) updated its analysis of the financial impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) public health emergency on the global air transport industry. IATA now sees 2020 global revenue losses for the passenger business of between $63 billion (in a scenario where COVID-19 is contained in current markets with over 100 cases as of 2 March) and $113 billion (in a scenario with a broader spreading of COVID-19). No estimates are yet available for the impact on cargo operations.

IATA’s previous analysis (issued on 20 February 2020) put lost revenues at $29.3 billion based on a scenario that would see the impact of COVID-19 largely confined to markets associated with China. Since that time, the virus has spread to over 80 countries and forward bookings have been severely impacted on routes beyond China.

Financial markets have reacted strongly. Airline share prices have fallen nearly 25% since the outbreak began, some 21 percentage points greater than the decline that occurred at a similar point during the SARS crisis of 2003. To a large extent, this fall already prices in a shock to industry revenues much greater than our previous analysis.

To take into account the evolving situation with COVID-19, IATA estimated the potential impact on passenger revenues based on two possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: Limited Spread

This scenario includes markets with more than 100 confirmed COVID-19 cases (as of 2 March) experiencing a sharp downturn followed by a V-shaped recovery profile. It also estimates falls in consumer confidence in other markets (North America, Asia Pacific and Europe).

The markets accounted for in this scenario and their anticipated fall in passenger numbers, due to COVID-19, as are as follows: China (-23%), Japan (-12%), Singapore (-10%), South Korea (-14%), Italy (-24%), France (-10%), Germany (-10%), and Iran (-16%). Additionally, Asia (excluding China, Japan, Singapore and South Korea) would be expected to see an 11% fall in demand. Europe (excluding Italy, France and Germany) would see a 7% fall in demand and Middle East (excluding Iran) would see a 7% fall in demand.

Globally, this fall in demand translates to an 11% worldwide passenger revenue loss equal to $63 billion. China would account for some $22 billion of this total. Markets associated with Asia (including China) would account for $47 billion of this total.

Scenario 2: Extensive Spread

This scenario applies a similar methodology but to all markets that currently have 10 or more confirmed COVID-19 cases (as of 2 March). The outcome is a 19% loss in worldwide passenger revenues, which equates to $113 billion. Financially, that would be on a scale equivalent to what the industry experienced in the Global Financial Crisis.

MARKET IMPACT ON PASSENGER NUMBERS IMPACT ON PASSENGER REVENUES
Australia, China, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam
-23%
-$49.7 billion
Rest of Asia Pacific
-9%
-$7.6 billion
Austria, France, Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Switzerland, Sweden, the United Kingdom
-24%
-$37.3 billion
Rest of Europe
-9%
-$6.6 billion

Bahrain, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Lebanon, the

United Arab Emirates

-23%
-$4.9 billion
Rest of Middle East
-9%
-$2.3 billion
Canada and US
-10%
-$21.1 billion

Note: Revenue loss figures are not additive due to overlaps of some markets, e.g., revenues for China and Germany both contain the revenues for the China-Germany market. Revenues are base fare revenues for all airlines flying to, from and within the country.

Africa and Latin America/Caribbean regions are not explicitly included in this market-based analysis, because there are currently no countries in either region with at least 10 COVID-19 cases.

Mitigation

Oil prices have fallen significantly (-$13/barrel Brent) since the beginning of the year. This could cut costs up to $28 billion on the 2020 fuel bill (on top of those savings which would be achieved as a result of reduced operations) which would provide some relief but would not significantly cushion the devastating impact that COVID-19 is having on demand. And it should be noted that hedging practices will postpone this impact for many airlines.

Impact

“The turn of events as a result of COVID-19 is almost without precedent. In little over two months, the industry’s prospects in much of the world have taken a dramatic turn for the worse. It is unclear how the virus will develop, but whether we see the impact contained to a few markets and a $63 billion revenue loss, or a broader impact leading to a $113 billion loss of revenue, this is a crisis.

“Many airlines are cutting capacity and taking emergency measures to reduce costs. Governments must take note. Airlines are doing their best to stay afloat as they perform the vital task of linking the world’s economies. As governments look to stimulus measures, the airline industry will need consideration for relief on taxes, charges and slot allocation. These are extraordinary times,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

Read the full updated impact assessment (pdf)