Ryanair Holdings today reported a Q3 net loss of €96m, compared to a PY Q3 loss of €321m.  During this 3-month period:

• Ryanair’s CDP^[1]climate protection rating improved from “B-” to “B”.
• Q3 traffic rebounded strongly by 286% from 8.1m to 31.1m.
• Close in bookings and yields in Dec./Jan. badly damaged by Omicron restrictions.
• UK CCFF £600m loan was repaid in Oct. (5 months early).
• 41 B737-8200 “Gamechangers” delivered up to 31 Dec.
• 720 new routes & 15 new bases were announced for FY22/FY23.
• Fuel hedged well below spot prices (Q4 100%; FY23: H1 80% & H2 70%).
• S.22 capacity on sale at 114% of S.19 (pre-Covid).
• 5-year growth accelerates to 225m guests p.a. by FY26 (prev. 200m p.a.).

Ryanair’s Michael O’Leary, said:

ENVIRONMENT:

“Every passenger who switches to Ryanair from legacy airlines cuts their CO₂ emissions by up to 50% per flight. Over the next 5-years our traffic will grow by 50% to 225m p.a. This growth will be delivered on a fleet of new B737 “Gamechanger” aircraft, which offer 4% more seats, but burn 16% less fuel and reduce noise emissions by 40%.

Our work with the EU, fuel suppliers, and aircraft manufacturers to accelerate sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) supply continues, in partnership with Trinity College Dublin.  Ryanair hopes to power 12.5% of our flights using SAF by 2030. Ryanair aims to cut CO₂ per passenger/km by 10% to less than 60 grams by 2030.  We are working with A4E and the EU Commission to accelerate reform of the Single European Sky, to minimize ATC inefficiency and delays which will significantly lower fuel consumption, CO₂ emissions and flight delays.

In Q3 Ryanair published our “Aviation with Purpose” sustainability report highlighting ambitious environmental and social targets over the coming years and mapping out Ryanair’s path to net carbon zero by 2050. Our environmental strategy, and progress to date, enabled CDP to upgrade Ryanair’s climate protection rating to B from B- in Dec. 2021. This is a significant advance towards our goal of an independent climate “A” rating within the next 2 years.

SOCIAL:

Our 5-year growth plan will create over 6,000 new well paid jobs for highly trained pilots, cabin crew and engineers all over Europe.  Last Oct. Ryanair invested €50m in a cutting-edge Aviation Skills Training Centre in Dublin and we plan to invest over €100m in 2 more, high skills, training centers (one possibly in Spain/Portugal and one in CEE) during this period. To facilitate this growth, Ryanair recently ordered up to 8 CAE full flight simulators (at a value of over $80m).  The first of these new sims delivers in FY23.

Following the success of our first Customer Panel meeting in Sept., the Panel will meet again in Madrid in the Spring.   We have implemented many of these customer suggestions, including a Day of Travel service in the Ryanair App to assist customers with live updates through every step of their Ryanair journey, a new Ryanair wallet for speedy refunds and an online self-service hub.  Our unbending commitment to delivering our customers the lowest fares, the most on-time flights, an industry lowest CO₂ emissions and friendly customer service has seen Ryanair record its highest ever customer satisfaction (“CSAT”) score of 89% in Q3. Our on-time performance in the 3^rd quarter, including the busy Christmas/ New Year period, was excellent with almost 90% of all Ryanair flights arriving in “on-time”.

COVID-19 – RECOVERY:

We delivered a strong traffic rebound in Q2 (Sept. quarter) following the successful rollout of the EU Digital Covid Certificates (“DCC”) in July, and the relaxation of EU travel restrictions. Q3 got off to a good start with strong bookings for the Oct. mid-term break, and less confusion (in Oct.) about the UK Govt.’s absurd ‘traffic light’ system. Ryanair’s load active/yield passive recovery strategy saw Oct. traffic rise to 11.3m (84% load factor). Our Nov. load factor improved to 86% (10.2m guests), albeit at lower fares. The sudden emergence of the Omicron variant (late Nov.), and the media hysteria it generated in Dec., forced many European Govts. to reimpose travel restrictions in the run-up to Christmas, which significantly weakened peak (close-in) Christmas & New Year bookings and fares. As a result, Dec. traffic slowed to just 9.5m (with a lower 81% load factor), well behind the expected target of 11m guests.  Jan. capacity was cut by 33% on 22 Dec. which lowered the Jan. traffic target from 10m to between 6m-7m customers.  We hope that the rollout of booster vaccines across Europe in recent weeks, and growing evidence that Omicron is less virulent than other variants, will enable EU Govts. to remove travel restrictions and restore consumer confidence in inter EU air travel well in advance of Easter and peak S.22.

The Covid-19 crisis accelerated the collapse of many European airlines including Flybe, Norwegian, Germanwings, Level, Stobart and led to material capacity cuts at many others including Alitalia, TAP, LOT, SAS, etc.  The tsunami of State Aid from EU Govts. to their insolvent flag carriers (Alitalia, Air France/KLM, Iberia, LOT, Lufthansa, SAS, TAP and others) will distort EU competition and prop up high cost, inefficient, flag carriers for some years.  Ryanair was one of very few airlines during the Covid crisis to place significant new aircraft orders, to expand our airport partnerships and to secure lower operating costs so that we can pass on even lower fares on many new routes during the post Covid recovery.  Together with our airport partners, we are leading Europe’s traffic recovery and we plan to deliver accelerated traffic growth and jobs over the next 5 years.

GROWTH:

Over the past 9 months our Route Development team continued to work with like-minded airport partners to negotiate lower airport costs, recovery incentives and growth deals. In addition to 15 new bases (Agadir, Billund, Chania, Corfu, Cork, Madeira, Newcastle, Nuremberg, Riga, Stockholm, Venice (Marco-Polo), Venice (Treviso), Turin, Zadar & Zagreb), 720 new routes were announced and low-cost long term growth deals were extended in Stansted (to 2028), Bergamo (2028), Manchester (2028), East Midlands (2028) and Charleroi (2030).  Our Group has doubled its capacity in Rome (FCO), Lisbon, Vienna and we will base a record 33 aircraft in Dublin for S.22. Regrettably, our 5 aircraft base at Frankfurt Main will close in Mar. as Frankfurt’s price increases rendered it unable to compete with the many low cost airports across Europe and Germany (Nuremberg) seeking to accelerate traffic recovery and growth.

Up to the end of Q3, Ryanair has taken delivery of 41 B737-8200 “Gamechanger” aircraft and we hope to have over 65 new aircraft in our fleet for peak S.22 when our capacity will be approx. 114% of S.19 (pre-Covid) levels. These Gamechangers widen the cost gap between Ryanair and all other European airlines for the next decade.  Their operational reliability, fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions have so far exceeded guidelines, with universally positive passenger and crew feedback. Based on our 210 order book and available fleet capacity, the Ryanair Group plan to accelerate traffic growth over the next 5 years. From a pre-Covid annual traffic of 149m, we now expect to grow by 50% to over 225m guests p.a. by FY26 (previously 33% growth to 200m p.a.).

Q3 FY22 BUSINESS REVIEW:

Revenue & Costs

Q3 scheduled revenues increased 345% to €0.79bn as traffic recovered strongly from 8.1m to 31.1m guests (at an 84% load factor). Despite a strong start to Q3, especially the school’s mid-term break in Oct., the Omicron variant, and return of travel restrictions in early Dec., significantly damaged (higher yielding) close-in Christmas & New Year bookings. Ave. fares in Q3 were just €25 (down 24% on the same quarter pre Covid).  Ancillary revenue delivered a solid performance, generating €22 per passenger (+8%), as guests choose priority boarding and reserved seating.  Total revenues increased by over 330% to €1.47bn in Q3.

While sectors more than doubled (+220%) and traffic rose 286%, operating costs increased by just 136% to €1.59bn, driven primarily by lower variable costs such as airport & handling, route charges and improved fuel burn as more Gamechangers enter the fleet (offset by the higher cost of jet fuel). Lower costs, coupled with rising load factors, saw unit cost per passenger in Q3 (ex-fuel) reduce to €32, an excellent performance.

Our fuel requirements are almost fully hedged for Q4 FY22 (over 60% jet swaps at $580 per metric tonne, with caps hedging the balance at $750). H1 FY23 is 80% hedged (60% jet swaps at $620 and 20% caps at $715) and H2 FY23 is 70% hedged at $640.  Carbon credits are fully hedged for FY22 and 80% hedged for FY23 at €24 and €45 per EUA respectively (well below the current spot price of c.€85).  Ryanair’s very strong and sensible hedging policy will deliver significant savings for all our customers and shareholders at a time when many airline competitors have unwisely reduced or abandoned sensible hedging strategies.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Ryanair’s balance sheet is one of the strongest in the industry with a BBB (stable) credit rating (S&P and Fitch), almost €3bn cash (at 31 Dec.) and 90% of our B737 fleet unencumbered. In Oct. the Group repaid its UK CCFF £600m loan 5 months early.  During the Covid crisis, net debt has risen to over €2bn. We plan to reduce this net debt to zero as quickly as possible over the next 2 years.  Strong operating cashflows, offset by €0.8bn capex (mainly Gamechanger deliveries and aircraft deposits), drove a slight reduction in net debt to €2.1bn at 31 Dec. (31 Mar.: €2.3bn). The strength of Ryanair’s balance sheet ensures that the Group is well poised to capitalise rapidly on the many growth opportunities that exist in Europe into the post Covid-19 recovery in 2022 and 2023.

OUTLOOK:

The outlook for pricing and yields for the remainder of FY22 is hugely uncertain.  As announced on 22 Dec., our Jan. capacity was cut by 33% (reducing traffic from approx. 10m to between 6m-7m). While recent bookings have improved, following easing of travel restrictions, the booking curve remains very late and close-in, so Q4 traffic requires significant price stimulation at lower prices to quickly recover load factors which suffered steep declines due to the Omicron collapse in bookings over the Christmas/New Year period. Ryanair’s full year traffic forecast remains unchanged at ‘just under’ 100m passengers, but due to Covid uncertainty the FY22 net loss guidance remains within a wider than normal range of €250m to €450m. This outturn is hugely sensitive to any further positive or negative Covid news flow and so we would caution all shareholders to expect further Covid disruptions before we here in Europe and the rest of the world can finally declare that the Covid crisis is behind us.”

[1] CDP – Carbon Disclosure Project is an independent, non-profit, global environmental reporting organisation.

Ryanair has announced its largest ever summer schedule from Dublin Airport, with 120 destinations and over 900 weekly flights available for its Irish customers this summer.

This record-breaking schedule, which includes fantastic sun getaways to Spain, Portugal, Italy, including Sardinia and Sicily as well as exciting destinations in the Greek islands, Croatia and regional France.  Ryanair will also increase its investment with the basing of a 33^rd aircraft at Dublin Airport this summer, representing a further $100m investment and bringing its total investment at Dublin Airport to $3.3 billion. Ryanair also confirmed today that it will create 30 direct jobs as a result of this additional aircraft based in Dublin.

With an additional 22 routes compared with Summer 2019 and over 900 flights departing to over 120 destinations every week, this increased connectivity will delivery much needed inbound tourism while also giving Irish holiday makers an abundance of travel choices to top European destinations like Spain, Italy, Greece, Croatia and Portugal.

After 2 years of stop\start ineffective travel restrictions, the daa have finally been given the tools to incentivise travel with its Traffic Recovery Support Scheme (TRSS) which was recommended by the Aviation Task Force in their report of July 2020.

This investment by Ryanair in its largest ever Dublin schedule is a direct result of the recently launched Traffic Recovery Scheme by the daa. With many airlines cutting capacity and routes this summer, Ireland must lower access costs as it competes with regions and airports in other EU countries for a diminished pool of airline carriers in Europe which will shrink total short haul seats in Europe by up to 15% this summer.

Ryanair is the only airline in Europe adding capacity in significant volume with the delivery of 67 new Gamechanger Aircraft (delivering -40% noise emissions, -16% fuel emissions, +4% seats) before the start of summer 2022. If Ireland is to hold on to this capacity and connectivity then the TRSS scheme must at a minimum be extended by the Government into the winter ‘22/23 season to ensure that Irish inbound tourism, particularly post summer, secures the capacity, connectivity and tourists which are vital to the growth of the Irish economy.

Ryanair made this announcement:

Ryanair has called on the European Commission to ignore Lufthansa’s false claims about operating “ghost flights” just so they can “block” their slots and protect themselves from competition from low fare airlines. The solution is simple, Lufthansa should sell the seats on these flights at low fares, and reward EU consumers many of whom have funded the €12 billion of State Aid that Lufthansa and their subsidiaries in Belgium, Austria and Switzerland have already received from hard pressed taxpayers over the last 2 years of the Covid crisis.

Lufthansa complains about “ghost flights”, not because of concerns about the environment, but rather so they can further save the slot regime to protect their slots, which they aren’t using, while eliminating competition and consumer choice.

Ryanair’s Group CEO Michael O’Leary said:

“The solution to Lufthansa’s “ghost flights” problem is a simple one – just sell these seats to consumers. If Lufthansa really needs to operate these flights (solely to prevent the release of these slots to competitor airlines), then they should be required to sell these seats to the public at low fares. The German and EU public have already bailed out Lufthansa with billions of State Aid to Lufthansa and their subsidiaries, Brussels Airlines, Swiss and Austrian, and instead of operating empty flights just so they can block slots, Lufthansa should release the seats on these flights for sale at low fares to reward the German and European taxpayers who have subsidized it with €billions during the Covid crisis.

Lufthansa loves crying crocodile tears about the environment when doing everything possible to protect its slots. Slots are the way it blocks competition and limits choice at big hub airports like Frankfurt, Brussels Zaventem, Vienna, among others. If Lufthansa doesn’t want to operate “ghost flights” to protect its slots, then simply sell these seats at low fares, and help accelerate the recovery of short and long haul air travel to and from Europe.

In the meantime, Ryanair again calls on the European Commission to force Lufthansa and other State subsidized airlines to release slots that they do not wish to use, so that low fare GHOSTBUSTERS like Ryanair, among others, can offer choice, competition, and lower fares at these hub airports. The EU should ignore Lufthansa’s disingenuous claims about “ghost flights” when the solution is simple – sell the seats on these flights and then they will no longer need to be ‘afraid of no ghost’ flights”.

Ryanair Holdings plc has released its December traffic statistics as follows:

Ryanair operated over 62,200 flights in December with an 81% load factor.

The Board of Ryanair Holdings plc have announced that it was lowering its full Year Guidance from a previous Net Loss range of between €100m to €200m, as the Omicron Covid variant and recent Government travel restrictions across Europe have notably weakened close-in Christmas & New Year bookings. This sudden downturn has also caused Ryanair this week to cut its planned January schedule capacity by 33%.

The impact of these recent Government travel restrictions, in particular last weekend’s ban on UK arrivals into France and Germany, and the suspension of all EU flights to/from Morocco has lowered Ryanair’s expected December traffic from between 10m-11m, to a lower range of between 9.0m-9.5m. In responding to these restrictions, Ryanair has now cut its January capacity by 33%, reducing its expected January traffic from approx. 10m to between 6m-7m. In light of the current uncertainty about the Omicron variant, and intra Europe travel restrictions, no schedule cutbacks have yet been decided for February or March 2022. These schedules will be revisited in January as more scientific information becomes available on the Omicron variant, its impact on hospitalizations, European population and/or travel restrictions in February or March.

As a result of these new Covid developments, it is now likely that Ryanair’s full year traffic forecast will be just under 100m passengers (previously guided at just over 100m), and the expected Net Loss for the full year (end on March 31, 2022) is likely to be within a new range of €250m to €450m. However, these figures are hugely sensitive to any further positive or negative Covid news flow. Ryanair hopes to have more clarity, especially on the impact of Omicron on intra Europe travel restrictions, in time for its Q3 results on January 31, 2022.

Ryanair has announced its latest partnership with Junta de Andalucía in a bid to further boost tourism recovery across the Spanish region. Central to the partnership is an exciting and innovative joint communications campaign aimed at strengthening Spain’s position as an attractive tourist destination and spurring visitors from Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Ireland, Norway and Sweden.

As the most southern region in Spain, Andalucía is famous for its Moorish architecture, autonomous region of hills, clear-blue rivers, and mouth-watering food.

Ryanair Holdings plc released its November traffic statistics as follows:

Ryanair operated over 62,300 flights in November with an 86% load factor.

Ryanair has announced the opening of its fifth base in Portugal with 2 new based aircraft.

NEW SUMMER 2022 ROUTES TO MADEIRA

Ryanair’s CEO Eddie Wilson said:

“We are delighted to announce the opening of our new base in Madeira, which will deliver increased connectivity with 2 based aircraft and 40 weekly flights across 10 new routes, connecting Madeira with cities such as London, Paris, Dublin, Milan and Manchester on a year round basis. This $200m investment will not only boost Portugal’s economy by driving vital tourism but will also create more than 60 direct jobs in the region and over 400 on-site jobs in Madeira.  

Efficient operations and competitive airport charges provide the foundation from which Ryanair can deliver long-term traffic growth and increased connectivity. We worked closely with our partners in Madeira airport, Tourism de Portugal and APM to secure this growth and improve the services for those that live, work, or wish to visit the region.

At a time when other airlines are reducing their fleets and closing bases, we are delighted to continue to invest in both our people and airports in Portugal. We urge the Portuguese Govt. to do likewise by opening Lisbon-Montijo, scrapping the ill-timed aviation tax (which is a direct tax on tourism) and introducing a non-discriminatory traffic recovery scheme.  All of which could be easily funded with the €3.2bn of wasteful state aid granted to the small zombie airline TAP, by the Portuguese Govt. 

Ryanair will operate over 160 Portuguese routes next Summer (over twice as many as TAP), to 15 countries, making Ryanair Portugal’s number one carrier for choice, fares and on time performance.  To celebrate, we are launching a seat sale with fares available from €29.99 for travel next Summer, which must be booked by Thursday 25^th November. Since these amazing low fares will be snapped up quickly, customers should log onto http://www.ryanair.com now to avoid missing out.”