Airbus (Toulouse) has issued this forecast for Russia and the CIS:
According to the latest Airbus Global Market Forecast (GMF), the Russia & CIS air passenger market will more than double in the next 20 years, with over 2,000 aircraft needed by 2034, compared to the 922 in operation today to meet the countries’ growing demand for air travel. Airbus’ forecast shows that over 1,280 of these aircraft will be new deliveries, valued at US$150 billion, comprising 1,100 single-aisles, 160 twin-aisles and 24 very large aircraft. These additional aircraft will satisfy both fleet replacement needs and future growth for the intra-regional CIS and international market.
Airbus’ GMF foresees that in the next 20 years airlines in the Russia & CIS region will continue to renew their fleets by introducing more new fuel-efficient models, while gradually phasing out older and second hand aircraft. The region’s economy will gain positive momentum and grow yearly at 2.4% in the coming 20 years, with some countries, such as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, demonstrating a higher annual growth of around four to five per cent.
“The Russia & CIS market has always been of key strategic importance to Airbus, and we believe it will continue to grow, even with the recent challenges in the region, as air traffic has proven to be resilient to crisis around the globe. We look forward to seeing Airbus deliveries increasing in Russia & CIS to achieve a 50% market share,” said Christopher Buckley, Airbus Executive Vice President Sales. “We forecast traffic growth in terms of Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) to, from and within the Russia & CIS region to increase at 4.8 per cent per year on average over the next 20 years, which is above the world average of 4.6 per cent. The region’s highest traffic growth is expected to be on international destinations to the Middle East (+6.6%), followed by traffic to Asia-Pacific (+5.9%) and Latin America (+5.3%).”
Since Airbus delivered its first aircraft to Aeroflot in 1992, 28 airlines in the Russia & CIS region now operate over 340 Airbus models, including both its popular single-aisle and wide-body families. Over the last five years, Airbus’ fleet in Russia has doubled and the number of operators is constantly expanding.