Allegiant sees a significant step-up in leisure demand beginning mid-February and persisting into March

Allegiant Travel Company (Allegiant Air) reported its preliminary passenger traffic results for February 2022.

“After a slow start to the quarter, attributable to the Omicron variant, we saw a significant step-up in leisure demand beginning mid-February and persisting into March,” stated Drew Wells, senior vice president, revenue. “We finished February with a load factor of 77.8 percent, a more than eight-point improvement over January. Load factor during the month of March is currently trending above levels observed in 2019, with several weeks exceeding 90 percent booked loads, marking the first time we’ve seen loads at this level since the onset of the pandemic. In addition, yields are strong with March TRASM tracking in line with March of 2019. Due to recent weather events and staffing challenges, we have lowered our quarterly capacity guidance and now expect ASMs to be up roughly 18 percent year over three-year. Given yield strength, we expect total revenue to come in on the high-end of our initial revenue guide.”

“Despite decreased capacity for the quarter, we continue to expect CASM, excluding fuel, to fall within our initial range,” stated Gregory Anderson, executive vice president, chief financial officer. “Recent spikes in jet fuel prices have resulted in an updated fuel cost per gallon for the first quarter of roughly $3.05. Due predominantly to the volatile fuel environment as well as some staffing challenges, we expect to reduce planned capacity by roughly ten percent for the second quarter. We will continue to manage capacity to maximize profitability.”

Previous Current
System ASMs – year over three-year change1 Up 19.0 to 23.0% Up 17.0 to 19.0%
Scheduled service ASMs – year over three-year change¹ Up 19.0 to 23.0% Up 17.0 to 19.0%
Total operating revenue – year over three-year change¹ Up 5.0 to 9.5% Up 7.5 to 9.5%
Operating CASM, excluding fuel – year over three-year change¹ 2 Up 1.0 to 5.0% Up 3.0 to 5.0%
Fuel cost per gallon $2.67 $3.05

 

Scheduled Service – Year Over Three-Year Comparison
February 2022 February 2019 Change
Passengers 1,099,911 1,012,255 8.7%
Revenue passenger miles (000) 1,060,497 947,536 11.9%
Available seat miles (000) 1,362,381 1,137,059 19.8%
Load factor 77.8% 83.3% (5.5pts)
Departures 8,277 7,265 13.9%
Average stage length (miles) 932 908 2.6%

 

Total System* – Year Over Three-Year Comparison
February 2022 February 2019 Change
Passengers 1,105,652 1,020,352 8.4%
Available seat miles (000) 1,392,157 1,174,082 18.6%
Departures 8,503 7,559 12.5%
Average stage length (miles) 928 903 2.8%

 

Scheduled Service – Year Over Year Comparison
February 2022 February 2021 Change
Passengers 1,099,911 679,906 61.8%
Revenue passenger miles (000) 1,060,497 636,119 66.7%
Available seat miles (000) 1,362,381 1,203,720 13.2%
Load factor 77.8% 52.8% 25.0pts
Departures 8,277 7,630 8.5%

 

Total System* – Year Over Year Comparison
February 2022 February 2021 Change
Passengers 1,105,652 680,930 62.4%
Available seat miles (000) 1,392,157 1,223,407 13.8%
Departures 8,503 7,783 9.3%
Average stage length (miles) 928 904 2.

*Total system includes scheduled service and fixed fee contract.  System revenue passenger miles and system load factor are not useful statistics as system available seat miles include both ASMs flown by fixed fee flying as well as non-revenue producing repositioning flights used for operational needs.  Fixed fee flying is better measured through dollar contribution versus operational statistics.

Preliminary Financial Results
$ per gallon
February 2022 estimated average fuel cost per gallon – system $2.92