Short haul travel will do better than long haul travel so passenger numbers will recover slightly faster than traffic measured in RPKs and should reach pre-COVID-19 levels in 2023. For 2020, however, global passenger numbers are expected to decline 55%.

June 2020 figures back up the prediction with RPKs down 86.5% on June 2019 and an all-time low load factor of 57.6%.

The delayed recovery is due to a number of factors, including renewed outbreaks of COVID-19 in a number of countries such as the United States. In total, around 40% of global air travel markets are affected. Stop-start quarantines are having much the same effect as lockdowns.

In addition, corporate travel budgets are expected to be constrained as companies continue to face financial pressures. Though historically GDP growth and air travel have been highly correlated, surveys suggest this link has weakened, particularly with regard to business travel, as video conferencing appears to have made significant inroads as a substitute for in-person meetings.

There is weak consumer confidence too due to rising unemployment, low income, and the perceived risk of catching COVID-19. Some 55% of respondents to IATA’s June passenger survey don’t plan to travel in 2020.

Scientific advances in fighting COVID-19, including the development of a successful vaccine, could allow a faster recovery. However, at present there appears to be more downside risk than upside to the baseline forecast.

Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO accepts that the upturn in traffic has so far been weak. “What improvement we have seen has been domestic flying,” he says. “International markets remain largely closed. Consumer confidence is depressed and in many parts of the world infections are still rising. All of this points to a longer recovery period and more pain for the industry and the global economy.”

As a result, IATA is calling for continued relief measures. A full Northern Winter season waiver on the 80-20 use-it-or-lose it slot rule, for example, would provide critical relief to airlines planning schedules amid unpredictable demand patterns.

“Airlines need to keep sharply focused on meeting demand and not meeting slot rules that were never meant to accommodate the sharp fluctuations of a crisis,” says de Juniac. “The earlier we know the slot rules the better, but we are still waiting for governments in key markets to confirm a waiver.”.

IATA urges governments to implement a layer of measures including the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO’s) global guidelines for restoring air connectivity contained in ICAO’s Takeoff: Guidance for Air Travel through the COVID-19 Public Health Crisis. IATA also sees potential for accurate, fast, scalable and affordable testing measures and comprehensive contact tracing to play a role in managing the risk of virus spread while re-connecting economies and re-starting travel and tourism.

“We need to learn to manage the risks of living with COVID-19 with targeted and predictable measures that will safely re-build traveler confidence and shattered economies,” said de Juniac.

Picture Credit | Shutterstock

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released an update to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on air passenger numbers, employment and economies across Europe, and urged governments to coordinate to lift border restrictions and find alternatives to quarantine measures to avoid further economic damage.

Although the European market has seen an increase in the number of flights in recent months, supported by the reopening of borders between countries of the Schengen area and the non-Schengen EU states, flights are still more than 50% below the same period in 2019. Passenger numbers are currently forecast to fall by around 60% in 2020, which represents about 705 million passenger journeys. The near-term outlook for recovery in Europe remains highly uncertain with respect to the second wave of the pandemic and the broader global economic impact it could have. Passenger demand in Europe is expected to recover gradually and will not reach 2019 levels until 2024. 

With air travel not recovering as originally hoped, the negative impact on employment has increased. More than 7 million jobs supported by aviation (including tourism) in Europe are now at risk (up from around 6 million estimated in June). 

“It is desperately worrying to see a further decline in prospects for air travel this year, and the knock-on impact for employment and prosperity. It shows once again the terrible effect that is being felt by families across Europe as border restrictions and quarantine continue. It is vital that governments and industry work together to create a harmonized plan for reopening borders,” said Rafael Schvartzman, IATA’s Regional Vice President for Europe.

Analysis of the largest European markets shows a decline across all metrics since the previous IATA estimates in mid-June. (These are impact estimates for the full-year 2020.)

See the full table of European countries (pdf)

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released new data showing the impact on the Middle East aviation industry and on economies caused by the shutdown of air traffic due to the COVID-19 pandemic has deepened over recent weeks.

• Job losses in aviation and related industries could grow to 1.5 million. That is more than half of the region’s 2.4 million aviation-related employment and 300,000 more than the previous estimate.
• Full-year 2020 traffic is expected to plummet by 56% compared to 2019. Previous estimate was a fall of 51%.
• GDP supported by aviation in the region could fall by up to $85 billion. Previous estimate was $66 billion.

Middle East economies have been brought to their knees by COVID-19. And without air connectivity being re-established, the socio-economic impact is getting worse. Businesses which contribute substantially to the region’s GDP and provide thousands of jobs are at risk without these vital connections. For the region’s economic recovery, it is imperative that the industry restart safely as soon as possible,” said Muhammad Al Bakri, IATA’s Regional Vice President for Africa and the Middle East.

Restarting Aviation in the Middle East

To minimize the impact on jobs and the broader Middle East economy, an accelerated recovery of air transport across the region is paramount. This can be achieved through government action in two priority areas:

1. Harmonizing the restart of air transport across the region
Some countries in the Middle East are opening their borders to regional and international air travel but inconsistent application of biosafety measures along with unnecessary entry requirements are deterring passengers and suppressing the resumption of air travel. Harmonizing the restart of aviation across the region is critical for economic recovery. Governments need to implement the common global set of air transport biosecurity measures, contained in the International Civil Aviation Organization’s CART Take-off Guidelines.

2. Continued financial and regulatory support
In particular, direct financial aid such as wage subsidies and loans, an extension of the waiver to the 80-20 slot rule, and relief from taxes and charges.

“We are grateful to governments which have provided relief to aviation. However, the situation is not getting better, governments need to continue applying relief measures—financial and regulatory. A regional priority is securing support in the form of wage subsidies and loans as well as an extension of the waiver for the 80-20 use-it-or-lose-it slot rule. This is needed to provide critical relief to airlines in planning schedules amid unpredictable demand patterns. Saudi Arabia has confirmed a waiver for its slot coordinated airports and we hope the UAE, Morocco and Tunisia will do so soon. Airlines need to focus on meeting demand and not meeting slot rules that were never meant to accommodate the sharp fluctuations of such a crisis,” said Albakri.

Country level impact

The latest assessment from IATA Economics shows that the outlook at the national level has worsened for major aviation markets in the Middle East since June. For example, the passenger numbers, jobs at risk and GDP impacts for the five biggest Middle East markets all have declined:

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released new data indicating that the impact of COVID-19 on Africa’s aviation industry and economies has worsened sharply since the previous assessment in April.

• Job losses in aviation and related industries could increase by up to 3.5 million. That is more than half of the region’s 6.2 million aviation-related employment and 400,000 more than the previous estimate.
• Full-year 2020 traffic is expected to plummet by 54% (more than 80 million passenger journeys) compared to 2019. Previous estimate was a fall of 51%.
• GDP supported by aviation in the region could fall by up to $35 billion. IATA previously estimated a $28 billion decline.

“COVID-19 has devastated African economies and brought air connectivity across the continent to a virtual standstill. And the situation is getting worse. The economic consequences resulting from a disconnected continent are severe. Millions of jobs and livelihoods are at risk in family-run enterprises and large corporations along the entire travel and tourism value chain. For Africa’s economic recovery and future prosperity, it is essential to expedite the safe restart of the industry,” said Muhammad Al Bakri, IATA’s Regional Vice President for Africa and the Middle East.

Restarting African Aviation

To minimize the impact on jobs and the broader African economy an accelerated recovery of air transport across the continent is vital. This can be achieved through government action in two priority areas:

1. Harmonizing the restart of air transport in Africa

The harmonized adoption of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Council’s Aviation Recovery Task Force (CART) Take-off guidance – the global biosafety framework for the safe restart of aviation – is critical for the safe resumption of air transport. To avoid conflicting measures, disruptions and inefficiencies, all countries, including those in Africa, must apply these recommendations consistently and uniformly, without imposing unnecessary border constraints such as quarantines, which deter passengers and suppress the demand for air travel.

According to ICAO, Rwanda is amongst the first countries in the world to have fully complied with ICAO’s biosecurity recommendations. Barry Kashambo, Regional Director, ESAF speaking on behalf of the ICAO Regional Offices accredited to African States ICAO said: “We recognize the efforts and actions by Rwanda and some other States, to fully implement the provisions of ICAO CART recommendations and Take-off guidance and measures. We encourage all Governments in Africa to prioritize the restart of aviation and to tap into its potential as an enabler to Africa’s economic recovery post COVID-19. Air connectivity is critical to economic and sustainable development and the movement of persons across the continent.”

2. Stepping up efforts to support the industry

Continued financial and regulatory support, particularly financial relief–that does not increase industry debt levels–through direct cash injections, credit or loans and deferrals or discounts on user charges are essential to support airlines over the restart and recovery period.

“We are grateful to the few African governments that have provided relief to aviation so far – Rwanda, Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso and recently Cabo Verde. Their actions have helped save thousands of jobs and will enable some airlines to restart and support the wider economies they serve. But the situation is worsening. Continued relief measures are essential to minimize job losses and ensure that connectivity can be restored. We urge African governments and the development institutions who have committed funding to provide it urgently in a structure that does not weaken already stressed airline balance sheets, before it is too late,” said Albakri.

Country level impact

IATA Economics’ latest outlook for key national markets in Africa has worsened since the previous assessment in June. For example, passenger numbers, jobs at risk and GDP impacts for the five biggest African markets have declined across every metric: