Airbus made this announcement from Dubai:

• Retirement of older aircraft to accelerate, demand progressively more driven by replacement, supporting the industry’s decarbonization objectives
• Demand for air transport will continue to grow, driven by GDP, rising middle class and desire to explore and connect
• Continued improvements in fleet efficiency, sustainable fuels, operations and propulsion technologies will enable the sector’s 2050 net-zero objective
• Need for over 550,000 new pilots and over 710,000 highly skilled technicians over the next 20 years

In the next 20 years, Airbus forecasts demand for air transport to progressively shift from fleet growth to the accelerated retirement of older, less fuel-efficient aircraft, resulting in a need for some 39,000 new-build passenger and freighter aircraft, 15,250 of these for replacement. As a consequence, by 2040 the vast majority of commercial aircraft in operation will be of the latest generation, up from some 13% today, considerably improving the CO2 efficiency of the world’s commercial aircraft fleets. The economic benefits of aviation extend beyond the sector, contributing around 4% to annual global GDP and sustaining some 90 million jobs worldwide.

While having lost nearly two years of growth over the COVID period, passenger traffic has demonstrated its resilience and is set to reconnect to an annual growth of 3.9% per year, driven by expanding economies and commerce around the globe including tourism. The middle classes, who are the likeliest to fly, will grow in number by two billion people to 63% of the world’s population. The fastest traffic growth will be in Asia with domestic China becoming the largest market.

The demand for new aircraft will include around 29,700 Small aircraft like the A220 and A320 Families, as well as about 5,300 in the Medium aircraft category such as the A321XLR and the A330neo. In the Large segment, covered by the A350, a need for some 4,000 deliveries  is expected by 2040.

Cargo demand, boosted by e-commerce, is driven by an expected growth in express freight of 4.7% per year and a general cargo (representing about 75% of the market) growth of 2.7%. Overall, over the next 20 years there will be a need for some 2,440 freighters, of which 880 will be new-build.

In line with growth, ever more efficient aircraft operations globally increase the need for commercial aviation services – including maintenance, training, upgrades, flight operations, dismantling and recycling. This growth is on track at Airbus’ pre-pandemic forecast levels reaching a cumulative value of around $4.8Tn in the next 20 years. While continuing through a COVID-related downdip of some 20% over the 2020-2025 period, the services market is rebounding, triggering a need for some 550,000+ new pilots and 710,000+ highly skilled technicians over the next 20 years. While maintenance will remain the leading services segment, flight, ground operations and sustainable services are also expected to grow significantly.

“As economies and air transport mature, we see demand increasingly driven by replacement rather than growth. Replacement being today’s most significant driver for decarbonisation. The world is expecting more sustainable flying and this will be made possible in the short-term by the introduction of most modern airplanes,” said Christian Scherer, Chief Commercial Officer and Head of Airbus International. “Powering these new, efficient aircraft with Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) is the next big lever. We pride ourselves that all our aircraft – the A220, A320neo Family, the A330neo and the A350 – are already certified to fly with a blend of 50% SAF, set to rise to 100% by 2030 – before making ZEROe our next reality from 2035 onwards.”

The global aviation industry has already achieved huge efficiency gains, as shown by the 53% decline in aviation’s global CO2 emissions since 1990. Airbus’ product range supports at least a 20% CO2 efficiency gain over previous-generation aircraft. In view of further ongoing innovations, product developments, operational improvements as well as market based options, Airbus is supporting the air transport sector’s target to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Airbus, Dassault Aviation, ONERA, the French Ministry of Transports and Safran have launched the first in-flight study of a single-aisle aircraft running on unblended sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).

During the flight test over the Toulouse region on October 28, 2021, one CFM LEAP-1A engine of an Airbus A319neo test aircraft operated on 100% SAF. Initial results from the ground and flight tests are expected in 2022.

The unblended SAF is provided by Total Energies. It is made from Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA), which primarily consists of used cooking oil, as well as other waste fats. HEFA is made of paraffinic hydrocarbons and is free of aromatics and sulfur. Approximately 57 tonnes of SAF will be used for the entire test campaign. It is produced in Normandy close to Le Havre, France. The 100% SAF will also be utilized for compatibility and engine operability studies on the Safran Helicopters Arrano engine used on the Airbus Helicopters H160, which are expected to start in 2022.

Airbus, in collaboration with DLR, is responsible for characterizing and analyzing the impact of 100% SAF on ground and in-flight emissions. Safran focuses on compatibility studies related to the fuel system and engine adaptation for commercial and helicopter aircraft and their optimization for various types of 100% SAF fuels. Safran will perform LEAP engine ground tests with 100% SAF at its Villaroche facilities later this year to complete analysis. ONERA is supporting Airbus and Safran in analyzing the compatibility of the fuel with aircraft systems and will be in charge of preparing, analyzing and interpreting test results for the impact of 100% SAF on emissions and contrail formation. Dassault Aviation is contributing to the material and equipment compatibility studies and verifying 100% SAF biocontamination susceptibility.

The study – known as VOLCAN (VOL avec Carburants Alternatifs Nouveaux) – contributes to global decarbonization efforts currently underway across the entire aeronautical industry, and is benefiting from a financing of the France Relance recovery plan, the part thereof dedicated to the decarbonization of aviation, which is implemented by DGAC under the supervision of Jean-Baptiste Djebbari, French Minister of Transports. The study’s ultimate goal is to promote the large-scale deployment and use of SAF, and certification of 100% SAF for use in single-aisle commercial aircraft and the new generation of business jets.

Airbus, Air Liquide and Vinci Airports, three major players in the aviation, hydrogen and airport industries, are working together to promote the use of hydrogen at airports and build the European airport network to accommodate future hydrogen aircrafts. The airport of Lyon-Saint Exupéry (France) will host the first installations as early as 2023. This partnership reflects the three groups’ shared ambition to combine their respective expertise to support the decarbonization of air travel.

Lyon-Saint Exupéry Airport (VINCI Airports’ center of excellence for innovation) has been chosen as the pilot airport by the partners. The implementation of this project includes several phases:

• From 2023: deployment of a hydrogen gas distribution station at Lyon-Saint Exupéry airport. This station will supply both the airport’s ground vehicles (buses, trucks, handling equipment, etc.) and those of its partners, as well as the heavy goods vehicles that drive around the airport. This first phase is essential to test the airport’s facilities and dynamics as a “hydrogen hub” in its area of reach.

• Between 2023 and 2030: deployment of liquid hydrogen infrastructures that will allow hydrogen to be provisioned into the tanks of future aircraft.

• Beyond 2030: deployment of the hydrogen infrastructure from production to mass distribution of liquid hydrogen at the airport.

By 2030, the three partners will study the possibility of equipping VINCI Airports’ European airport network with the hydrogen production, storage and supply facilities needed for use on the ground and on board aircraft.

This partnership illustrates the partners’ shared commitment to decarbonizing air travel and is a major step forward for the development of hydrogen across the airport ecosystem. It relies on the know-how of Airbus in commercial aircraft, on Air Liquide’s expertise in mastering the entire hydrogen value chain (production, liquefaction, storage and distribution) and on the global reach of VINCI Airports, the leading private airport operator with 45 airports in 12 countries, which will help create the desired network.