Tag Archives: airplanes

Boeing predicts demand of 38,050 new airplanes over the next 20 years

Boeing (Chicago, Seattle and Charleston) projects a demand for 38,050 new airplanes over the next 20 years, an increase of 3.5 percent from last year’s forecast. Boeing released its annual Current Market Outlook (CMO) today, estimating the total value of those new airplanes at $5.6 trillion.

The manufacturer continues in its report:

By the end of the forecast period, the commercial airplane fleet will double, from 21,600 airplanes in 2014 to 43,560 airplanes in 2034. Fifty-eight percent of the 38,050 airplanes delivered over that time will be to accommodate growth.

Passenger traffic will continue to grow at about a 4.9 percent annual pace, near the historic trend line of 5 percent. More than 7 billion passengers will fly by the end of the forecast period. Cargo traffic will grow at about 4.7 percent per year.

The single-aisle market continues to be the fastest-growing, largest overall segment, requiring 26,730 airplanes over the coming two decades. These aircraft are the foundation of the world’s airline fleet, carrying up to 75 percent of passengers on more than 70 percent of the world’s commercial aviation routes. This sector is fueled by growth in low-cost carriers and airlines in developing and emerging markets.

About 35 percent of the single-aisle market will go to low-cost carriers, Tinseth noted. “Low-cost carriers will require airplanes that combine the best economics with the most revenue potential. With 20 percent lower fuel use, the 737 MAX 200 will be the ideal machine for them.”

Boeing forecasts that the widebody segment will require 8,830 new airplanes, led by small widebody airplanes in the 200- to 300-seat range such as the 787-8 and 787-9 Dreamliner. This year’s forecast reflects a continued shift in demand from very large airplanes to efficient new twin-engine products such as the 787 and new 777X.

While airline growth still accounts for the majority of new demand, a large and growing number of aging aircraft will require replacement. About 2 to 3 percent of the installed fleet will require replacement each year.

The air cargo market continues to strengthen, and will drive demand of some 920 new airplanes over the 20-year forecast.

The Asia market, including China, will continue to lead the way in total airplane deliveries over the next two decades.

Top Graphic: Boeing.

Boeing rolls out the first Next-Generation 737 at the increased rate

The first Boeing (Chicago and Seattle) Next-Generation 737 to be built at the increased rate of 42 airplanes per month rolled out of the factory in Renton, Washington yesterday (march 19). The 737-800 will soon be delivered to Airberlin (Berlin-Tegel) and ultimately leased to Transavia France (Paris).

The airplane will now undergo functional, systems and flight testing over the next three weeks before being delivered.

Market demand remains strong for the Next-Generation 737, the world’s best-selling commercial jetliner. Since 2010, production has risen about 33 percent, from 31.5 to 42 airplanes a month. As previously announced, the production rate is scheduled to increase to 47 airplanes a month in 2017.

Boeing downgrades the 747-8 production rate to 1.5 aircraft per month

Boeing (Chicago) has just announced that it will adjust the production rate for the 747-8 program from 1.75 airplanes to 1.5 airplanes per month through 2015 because of lower market demand for large passenger and freighter airplanes.

The company expects long-term average growth in the air cargo market to begin returning in 2014, and forecasts global demand for 760 large airplanes (such as the 747-8) over the next 20 years, valued at $280 billion.

The 747-8 family provides airlines with double-digit improvements in fuel efficiency, operating costs and emissions, while being 30 percent quieter and adding more capacity. To date, the 747-8 has accumulated 107 orders for passenger and cargo versions, 56 of which have been delivered.

The first delivery at the new production rate is expected in early 2014. The production rate change is not expected to have a significant financial impact.

Copyright Photo: Nick Dean/AirlinersGallery.com. Boeing 747-8KZF N50217 (JA12KZ) (msn 36137) climbs away from the runway at Paine Field near Everett, WA.