Australian Transport Safety Board (ATSB) has issued an update dated October 8 for the search of missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH 370. The ATSB believes the Boeing 777-200 ran out of fuel and spiraled down in the southern Indian Ocean. The ATSB is refining its search data using all available data. The search is likely to move further south. The ASTB issued this executive summary:
On March 8, 2014, flight MH 370, a Boeing 777- 200 ER registered 9M-MRO, lost contact with Air Traffic Control during a transition between Malaysian and Vietnamese airspace. An analysis of radar data and subsequent satellite communication (SATCOM) system signalling messages placed the aircraft in the Australian search and rescue zone on an arc in the southern part of the Indian Ocean. This arc was considered to be the location close to where the aircraftโs fuel was exhausted.
Refinements to the analysis of both the satellite and flight data have been continuing since the loss of MH 370. The analysis has been undertaken by a team from the UK, US, Australia and Malaysia working both independently and collaboratively. Priority, medium and wide search areas were provided in the ATSBโs MH 370 โ Definition of Underwater Search Areas (June report).
The latest analysis indicate that the next, underwater, phase of the search should be prioritized further south within the wide search area.
Work is continuing with refinements to the analysis of the SATCOM data. This ongoing work may result in changes to the prioritization and locale of search activity over the period of the underwater search.
End-of-flight scenarios:
To estimate and have confidence in a reasonable search area width, it is important to understand the aircraft system status at the time of the SATCOM transmission from the aircraft at 0019.29 (log-on request), and the variations in aircraft behaviour and trajectory that were possible from that time.
The log-on request recorded at the final arc occurred very near the estimated time of fuel exhaustion. The recorded BFO values indicated that the aircraft could have been descending at that time. Aircraft systems analysis, in particular the electrical system and autoflight system, has been ongoing. In support of the systems analysis, the aircraft manufacturer and the operator have observed and documented various end-of-flight scenarios in their B777 simulators.
The simulator activities involved fuel exhaustion of the right engine followed by flameout of the left engine with no control inputs. This scenario resulted in the aircraft entering a descending spiralling low bank angle left turn and the aircraft entering the water in a relatively short distance after the last engine flameout. However when consideration of the arc tolerances, log on messages and simulator activities are combined, it indicates that the aircraft may be located within relatively close proximity to the arc. Whilst the systems analysis and simulation activities are ongoing, based on the analysis to date, the search area width described in the June report remains reasonable with the underwater search to commence at the 7th arc and progress outwards both easterly and westerl
Read the full report: CLICK HERE
Meanwhile CEO Tim Clark of Emirates believes the aircraft was always under control and may not be in the southern Indian Ocean. Tim Clark gave an interview to Der Spiegel. Read his comments here on the investigation from the Sydney Morning Herald: CLICK HERE
Maps: Google Earth.
Below: Google Earth/Flight path reconstruction group:











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