Assistant Editor Aaron Newman

Assistant Editor Aaron Newman

The Battle for the Big Peach

By Aaron Newman.

The world’s busiest airport will become the latest low-cost battleground this spring and summer as Spirit Airlines and Frontier Airlines deem Atlanta as their newest expansion target. By September 2015, Spirit will provide service to 15 cities from Atlanta; while Frontier will expand to 16 cities by the end of this month. With competition from Southwest and of course the hometown favorite, Delta Airlines; does Spirit and Frontier stand a chance at success in the big peach?

Frontier Airlines and Spirit Airlines routes from Atlanta

In the case of Frontier, Delta serves all of the above markets, and Southwest will compete on seven of the markets. In the case of Spirit, Delta operates service to all of the above markets except Atlantic City; while Southwest again competes on seven of the above routes.

It’s likely this aggressive growth stems from the purchase of AirTran Airways by Southwest; AirTran’s disappearance from ATL left a void for a true low-cost carrier in Atlanta. Frontier and Spirit perceive Atlanta as an opportunity to use their low-cost model to attract cost conscious north Georgia residents to travel where they otherwise wouldn’t.

Data from the US Department of Transportation demonstrates that during the 3rd quarter of 2014, Atlanta’s average domestic fare was $439, while, the average US domestic fare was $397–Spirit and Frontier advertise fares starting as low as $19 one-way.

Source: Spirit Airlines.

In a contrast to Cleveland, another market where Frontier and Spirit are doing battle in 2015, Atlanta is not an airport where any major airline has made a substantial cutback. Southwest has made some minor changes to its route network post-merger, but nothing like the 60% capacity reduction seen by United Airlines at Cleveland. Frontier and Spirit are aware that they are in for a battle before one airline eventually wins out. Can both of these airlines survive the threat from each other, as well as the size of Delta and the loyal followings of Southwest’s customers?

Source: Frontier Airlines.

Who wins out?

Above Copyright Photo: Tony Storck/AirlinersGallery.com. Spirit Airlines Airbus A319-132 N503NK (msn 2470) prepares to land at its Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport (FLL) base.

Spirit has been growing quickly and their experience as an established ULCC (ultra-low cost carrier) gives them the upper hand in this turf war with Frontier. Spirit has a slightly lower CASM (cost per available seat mile) than Frontier (marketrealist.com), giving them the ability to offer lower fares while still maintaining profitability. The newly announced routes come at a time in which Spirit is preparing for a wave of aircraft deliveries (15 aircraft in 2015) that will push its fleet to 80 aircraft by the end of 2015–an added incentive to make Atlanta work for their bottom line. Spirit had long considered an Atlanta expansion, calculating that the Southwest Airlines acquisition of AirTran Airways would increase fares. What Spirit may not have expected, however, was that Frontier Airlines would try the same approach at the same time.

Copyright Photo Above: Ken Petersen/AirlinersGallery.com. Frontier Airlines’ Airbus A320-214 N227FR (msn 6184) is pictured at Raleigh/Durham.

Frontier’s route network is accustomed to change and though I believe one ULCC can gain market share in Atlanta, I predict Frontier will eventually leave or drastically reduce service in Atlanta due to disappointing bookings and slim margins caused by over-capacity. Ultimately, consumers will make the decision, regarding which ULCC they prefer, specifically on routes in which the two carriers overlap, such as Atlanta to Chicago (O’Hare) and Las Vegas. But, as mentioned, Spirit is believed to retain a slight cost advantage over Frontier, ultimately giving them the upper hand.

Surviving the big guys

In a recent presentation to investors, Spirit Airlines estimated Delta has an adjusted cost per available seat mile (CASM) 59% higher than Spirit (Atlanta Journal Constitution). Even though Delta has created a new low-fare class with limited perks in an attempt to compete with ULCC’s, Spirit predicts legacy carriers will eventually narrow their focus to high-yield passengers on over-lapping routes. This allows Spirit to concentrate their efforts on their favorite audience—the leisure traveler. Additionally, Spirit has historically coexisted well in other fortress hubs, like; Detroit, Minneapolis, Houston (IAH), and Dallas (DFW), proving they can effectively compete with larger, legacy carriers.

I conclude that Spirit and Frontier are not entering Atlanta to gain market share from Delta, but rather Southwest. Delta’s numerous frequencies, extensive network, and corporate contracts are no match for Frontier and Spirit. The two ULCC’s believe they can use their ultra-low fares to stimulate cost-sensitive passengers that have otherwise been priced out of air travel. This business model does not directly compete with Delta, but rather Southwest.

The decisions by Spirit and Frontier to grow in Atlanta demonstrate that Southwest is no longer the low fare leader it once was. Their cost structure is higher than that of the ULCC’s competing for lower yield passengers. In a recent interview, Frontier’s president Barry Biffle called Southwest a “mid-cost carrier,” and said that in Atlanta, “fares are relatively high compared to the average,” (Atlanta Journal Constitution) creating an opportunity for a ULCC to come in and thrive.